Despite more than a decade of reconstruction and development efforts, the Afghan economy remains in fragile and worsening condition. Intractable insurgents, cutbacks in foreign military personnel, persistent emigration of people and capital, and a slowing global economy are shifting Afghanistan’s economic prospects from troubling to bleak. Source: SIGAR Quarterly Report
According to the CIA World Factbook, the highest GDP growth was recorded 14% in 2012. Then, in 2013, it surprisingly experienced a drastic decline which was recorded 3.9%. In 2014, it dropped lower to 1.3%, and in 2015, it even went steeper to 1%, which is lowest than it has ever exited. But now there is a report that came out just yesterday indicating Afghanistan’s GDP growth may drop even lower.
Considering all these facts about Afghanistan's economy, it is safe to say that Afghanistan's economy in 2016 may not change if there is not any improvement in its current political instability and violence that is overwhelmingly increasing throughout the country. Based on SIGAR report, Afghanistan has become more dangerous today than the years before. It reports that the Taliban now have control more territory than at any time since 2001. It estimates that roughly 71.7% of the country's districts are under Afghan government control, or influence.
In the end, the negative yield curve in Afghanistan economy could only change if there would be any outside help not only to fragile economy, but as well as to its security.